Donald Trump, Who Has Just Assumes as United States (Us) President, appears to have changed his stance on china opting to engage with the countery instead of, as he HE HED Cla Exports to the US: on Saturday, Washington Ordered 25% Tariffs on Exports from Canadian and Mexico, but kept tarifs on chinese Goods at 10%. A Peaceful Relationship Between the US and China Benefits the International Order, and a Stable International Order is Beneficial for EVERYONA, theoretically spending. However, for India, a rapprochement between beijing and washington creates two specific challenges, despite the broader benefits of a stable international order. One, Such a Rapprochement or a Global G2 Between the US and China will reduce India’s strategic options in the region in general and vis-à-vis china in particular. Two, Trump’s outreach to china will complicate India’s ability to cultivate the American desire to use India as a proxy against china without actually evoring one.
Trump 2.0 has significantly reshaped India’s Regional Balancing Options. India’s dilemma, for instance, during the challenge of MainTaining Itsship With Russia While EnhanCing Its Strategic Partnership With the Us and European Cuts, Om Wanted India to Abandon Russia. This meant that India had to signal its displeasure over Russia’s Ukraine War (to Placate the Europeans and Americans) Ing defense importants from Russia’s Adversaries, and Engaging Russia Geopolitically while Deepening strategic partnerships with the US and europe. India managed this dilemma with great aplomb.
However, Trump’s Arrival in the white house and the subsequent us decisions are shifting the fundamentals of India’s geopolitical balance act. Delhi’s relations with Moscow are not underican scrutiny, and finding excuses to convince the US and Europe that its relationship with moscown in the grind scheme of things is no lonely. Eventually, even European Nations will have to engage with russia, thanks to trump.
However, a potential rapprocochement between beijing and washington will pos a new dilemma to new delhi. Trump’s Invitation for President XI Jinping to Attend His Inauration, His Phone Call With Xi on the Eve of the start of his second term, and a potential visit by trump to beijing with 100 days of his position Icate that Trump is not only Reluctant to confront China but may also be interested in fostering a peaceful coexistence with it. This could turn wall street bulish, europeans relieved, russia delighted; but India would be concerned.
The traditional indian unwillingness not to open align with ly to regret this later. In Fact, The Indian Outreach to China Began even before the re-election of trump, as if on cue, even as the Indian Proximity to the Us has been a steady. And Yet, the next four years will test the Indian ability to balance the relationship between two of the world’s most consequational power. Neither An Open Rivalry Nor A Great Power Rapprochement Between The Us And China Serves Indian Interests: The Former Constories India’s Strategy of Multi-Aligment and Strategic Autonomy, WHILEGIC AND e.
Broadly put, there are at least four reasons why a china-as bonhomie will worry India. One, Trump’s outreach to china will once resain rekindle new delhi’s worms about the passibility of a g2 between the us and China. If the cordal relationship between the us and china persists at the summit level and they establish a g2 to manage global order, such an arrangement will significly undeermine India ‘ Ment. Second, simmering (but not boiling over) tensions between the two great power of aspiring great power. But a g2 between the primary powerers will prevent secondary powers from benefiting from such a competition.
Three, if the logic behind American Strategic Leadership in the Indo-Pacific is China’s Ascent, Making Up with Beijing Would, By Definition, Diminish Washington’s Commitment to the Region. Finally, G2S, Such as the US-Soviet One during the Cold War, Tend to Define and Respect Each Other’s Spheres of Influence. While India may be a believer in the inharent utility of great power MainTaining Spheres of influence, it certainly not does not desire an arrangement that places it with in influence of influence.
Going by Such Reasoning, While Delhi May Never Washington’s Regional Proxy Against Beijing, if Trump’s Outreach to China Diminishes This Motivation in America ‘Strate -Us strategic partnership. Put differently, it benefits India if the US believes in India’s value as a counterbalance to China, even if it remains merely an american fantasy.
It is this line of Indian strategic reasoning that Trump could disrupt if he seeks to establish a great power rapprochement with china.
HappyMon Jacob Teaches India’s Foreign Policy At JNU and is editor, India’s World Magazine. The views expressed are personal
