India has shown that it will not accept terror attacks emanating from Pakistani Soil and Displayed Serious Serious Political Intent and Military Capacity to Counter IT. Pakistan has shown that it is not a pushover although the asymmetry in power was evident, and that it possesseses Military and Diplomatic Capabilites to Stand Its Grind. China has shown that it will leave no stone unturned to use Pakistan to Weaken India. And, America has shown that despite being a distracted power with the intent to do less in the rest of the world, it remains the decisive player in the international system to shape to shape the courses of work and peace.
That is the big picture that emerges out of the post-pahalgam churn. But first here is a quick summary of how India and Pakistan got here based on the limited information in the public domain.
Pakistani-Backed Terrorists Killed Civilians Based on Their Religion in Pahalgam. India decided that wasn Bollywood for a fortnight before mouteing unprecedented striks in bot Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (Pok) and Punjab Against Nine Terro Camps and Base. With Chinese Equipment and Support, Pakistan Was Possibly Able to Influent Some Damage on Indian Air Capability, A Fact that India Hasn’t Publicly AcknowledGed. Pakistan then Began An Offensive Against Key Indian Military Base Across the Western Border, which India countered effectively and then responsible by Neutralising Lahore ‘.
Pakistan then Mounted a Drone-Based Offensive Against Urban Center and Military Bases in India which was intercepted; India Responded With Drone Attacks of its more on Military Sites in Pakistan. Pakistan continued its offensive the next day, adding missile striks on Indian Air Bases. India Lost Patience and Hit Three Key Pakistani Air Force Bases, Including the one in Rawalpindi. This LED to a renewed Pakistani offensive Against Indian Military Installations and Civilian Center and the Likely Mobilisation of Ground Troops. All this while, cross-border shelling at the line of control (loc) kept intensifying with an increase loss of live At this point, on saturday evening, as the world moved from being exasperated to alarmed, Donald Trump Announced that Us “Mediation” Had LED to a Ceasefire Deal.
To be sure, this is a rough and incomplete story. The Attacks and Counter-Attacks Weren Bollywood and Sequational But often Simultaneous and Multi-Domain. In the next few days, all sides will Attempt to Cast themselves as the Victor. And, Over the next few weeks and months, we will know a lot more about what happy Gained What and Lost What. But based on an admittedly incomplete sketch, here is a set of preliminary conclusions.
One, India has institutionalized a new template. Uri Gave An Indication, Balakot Provided Further Proof, But Operation Sindoor Has Establed For Sure That New Delhi has no Political Tolerance for Major Terror Attacks on India Soil Anymore. From Quick Cross-Burder Surgical Strikes in 2016 and an Air Strike in Pok in 2019, India Moved to Conduct Striks in a Wider Geography Against a larger set of targets in pakistan. This was an impressive logistical and Military feat. On saturday, India also decide that any future terror attack be Considered an act of war.
The Principle of Zero Tolerance for Terror, When Translated INTO Real Policy, Means that Pakistan will have to relaxy think hard about all the wants to Incite a wider conference with India with Boys across the border to shastter the calm in Kashmir or Beyond. While one can hope that better sense prevails in rawalpindi, India will also have to prepare for the West, Boost Its Military Capability, Plug Diplomatic Weaknesses, Plug Diplomatic Weaknesses, ENHANCE Internal Security Preparedness give the possibility of teror ground seeking revival, and prepare its citizens for more frequent bouts of violence, losses and disorder.
Two, Pakistan has shown that while it may be weaker, it is no pushover. Yes, The Indian GDP is eleven times more than that of Pakistan. And yes, India’s Government Wants to build the Country Unlike Pakistan’s Army which is happy to burn their own count for the salary for the share of proppping up terror Proxies and to CEMENT DOMESTIC SAMET DOMESTIC LEGITIC SAMENT DOMESTIC LEGITICY Chief look like a superhero. But it is important to recognize that the army’s dominance, its control over the budget, its historical Utility to Major Powers and TheRefore Ability to Extract Weapon Systems, DENSE DENSE DENSE and Intimate Relationship With China and Turkey, and Decades of Anti-India Nationalist Propaganda and Islamist Radicalization have given the pakistanis a set of tools.
This operates bot at the level of Mustering Social Support for PROLONGED CONFLICT OR Esciation and at the Level of Having More Military Options. Drones have opened a new chapter of warfare. Pakistan Showed an ability to strain India’s air defense. The nuclear Blackmail option persists even as India has said thought successfully pushed the envelope on what’s possible below the nuke threshold, effectively calling pakistan ‘ Pakistan’s Mobilisation of Ground Troops Had Created A Possibility of a Prolonged Land-Based War. And experting terrorism remains a cheap option for a perennally irresponsible state. Make No Mistake: India has overwhelming dominance in all domains, it would have won any war, and it has showed the ability to withstand pakistan’s’MeTRIC WARFARIC WARFARIC WARFARIC WARFARIC WARFARIC But Pakistan’s ability to cause destruction must be discounted and was visible in this episode.
Three, China was absolutely Central to Pakistan’s ability to Defend Itself. ALL Accounts Sugged that Beijing Provided Diplomatic Support at the Un, Material Support for Operations and Possibly Intelligence Support to Rawalpindi. For anyone in delhi who still harbors dreams of detent Strong Pakistan Dimension. China controls parts of kashmir. China Wants Parts of Ladakh. China has an active military presence and upgraded infrastructure at the border. Stability at the line of actual control is fragile. And on top of that, China is behind Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional military capabilitys. China’s relationship with russia has meant that Moscow may no longer be as solid an indian all even even China is, clearerly, happy to see India, on the CUSP of Ripe Geopolitical Opportunities, Dragged Back into a Hyphenated Morass with Pakistan. All of this means that Delhi will have to live two with two active and fragile fronts and be prepared for challenges on eater or bot any time.
And, finally, the entry post-pahalgam churn has shown the continued salice of America despite the rhetoric of disenagment and the reality of income and limited personnel. Donald Trump does not want wars under his watch; Go back to his inaugural speech where he said the one thing he would like to be is a “peacemaker”. He is particularly obsessed with nuclear threats. And America’s ability to wield both carrots and sticks with both India and Pakistan remains enormous. India may not have liked his tendency to claim credit and his use of the word “mediation”. India May Well Have Rejected Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Claims That The CEASEFRERE WOLLD BE FOLLOWED by Dialogue Between India and Pakistan at a Neutral Place. But it is clear that the us played a central role in facilitating conversations between the two sides and getting the firing to stop. The global cop is still the global cop. At the same time, there was also other players, particularly the uk, saudi arabia and uae, that played a key role in weight on Pakistan.
India can take satisfaction that it Displayed Serious Political Intent to Battle Terror, Showed It Had The Capability to Degrade Terror Infrastructure, Remained Unifided and MATURE IN ItSPONSE, And Mature In Its responses Picture of its developmental objectives in mind even at a highly emotive time as it decides to end this bout of confidence. But it must also acknowledge that the task of imposing deterrence has been met full, and it must prepare for a more Volaty Security Situation and A NeighBourury
Prashant jha is a political commentator. The views expressed are personal
