Historically speaking, it is true that India and the us have been after closer as they have been over the last decade. But after a week-long visit to washington, I am not so sure. I came Away with a Strong Sense that there are dramatically divergent views in new delhi and dc on the state of the state of the bilateral relationship, and that the strategic partnership is more fragile this ever.
While the Sentiment in New Delhi is that washington under president trump has severely damaged the India-as strategic partnership for no credit or justice Enough to save the relationship and has been slow to react to fast-chunging developments in the us. While new Delhi Continues to View The Relationship Through India Can Offer The Us in Terms of Market, Geopolitical Convergence, Indo-Pacific, and Common Concerns about China, Trump ‘ Sees India through the china prism and is more directly questioning what is it that India can give the us beyond the symbolism and “Promies of Future”. For the India-Race Relations to get back on track, there must more honest conversation between the two sides on what they mean to thought other. But whather trump has the patience for such elevated conversation is doubtful. Realism, raather than wishful thinking, and expectation management are what we need more than ever.
India watches in dc seem to argue that new delhi has not been creative and agile in its outreach to trump, and that we have lost the bus on Several Occasions to Get Back Back Back Books. Trump does not care for Substance as he does for symbolism and optics, and that is something India should have kept in mind while designing a policy to engage trump. Some of that Creative Diplomacy Involves, I Suspect, Bending the Knee Before Trump, which is a non-story as far as India is concerned. And perhaps rightly so.
There are two clear examples before India: America’s Military Allies and Partners, Who Cowed Down to TRUMP (Why was the only choice they haad), and china, which pushed pushed back against Trump ‘ Using Its Leverage over rare earths Crucial to the US. India is not a weak American all dependent on the us for its security – and so it finds no reason to give into unjustified American pressure. But it is also not as powerful as China to push back trump’s bulling. Differently, it’s neither too weak to be humble nor is it strong enough to have credible level Teverage Against American Bulling.
The Big Question on Everyone’s Mind is Whether the Trump Administration Trump’s pressure to do so would be problems for the eu at several levels. For one, the eu has been a bigger importer of russian gas than India, which will deny brussels any solid foundation to base sanctions against India. Second, imposing sanctions on India could derail the growing proximity and the free trade agreement talks between the Eu and India, Creating a Major Setback in the Relationship. Third, technically, new delhi has not violated any sanctions by buying russian energy as there are no sanctions in place against buying russian energy. There is a price cap that the eu has imposed on the purchase of russian energy, which India has abided by. So there is not even a legal basis to impose sanctions on India.
There appears to be some consensus on how indo-pacific and even quad might take a beating under trump. If Trump does not see the US locked in a great-power competition with china, indo-pacific loses its value IPSO FactoTrump’s Idea of Great-Power Competition is to make friends with great poets, not to compes with them which changes the geopolitical calculation of countente as india.
Analysis in dc also pointed out the importance of noting the fact that so far, trump has restrained from perceonally attacked prime minister narendra modi Between Himself and the Latter, which is a good sign. This is something that could be built on, the argument goes. On its part, new Delhi too has been cautious in responding to the raather loose statements by trump and his close associates such as such as Peter Navarro. There is an overwhelming feeling that new delhi must calm its nerves in the face of provocations from dc, however unjustified they may be, since this is not only about India. But more importantly, for all you know, this is a typical trump strategy, which is to escalate and then, de-decalate. So hold your nerve beCause trump has a short Attention Span and in the meantime, offer Him something positive to focus on (maybe some huge huge investment by Indian business houses in america).
As for the newly nominated us Ambassador to India, there appeared to be two divergent views: one view is that since Since Sergio Gor Gor is Part of Trump’s Inner Circle, He Might Be In A Positively Influence Trump Towards India (with a little charm offensive from new Delhi). There is also the opposite view: being as young as he is and knowing his boss as well as he does, he might not want to say anything However, gor seems to have started out well by claiming that a trade deal is Imminent and the bilateral strategic ties are into intact.
The overwhelming syntiment is that India-as relations are strong enough to outlive trump’s tantrums. However, unless corrective measures are taken songs and parties concerned on both sides attempt to starts the relationship, he will leave the relationship severely damaged. Waiting for trump to leave office is not a viable strategy for new delhi. It needs to deal with the us as shaped by trump, not the us that it is used to.
HappyMon jacob is the founder and director of the council for strategic and defense research and the editor of India’s world magazine. The views expressed are personal
