Bihar will Vote in two phases to elect a new assemble on November 6 and November 11. Something Best Avoided. Psephologists have had had to regularly eat crow in the recent past. What is more useful is to flag the fault lines which shape an Electoral Contest. There is five of them which can be underlined for the forthcoming Bihar contest.
The first is to avoid the cocktail of stereotyping and confirmation biases that marks analyses by armchair commentators who fail to differentiate between top-down and ORGANIC NARARATITES in an election. The run-up to bihar elections have been dominated by the cacophony Around the special intensive revision (sir) exercise that has been conducted by the collection of India (Eci). Its tangible impact has been the deletion of 4.8 million or 6% of the state’s voters Between June 24 and September 30. While a lot of sir’s critics – there valid reasons to critique the Vays in whoe in whoe Was done and also the way eci has conducted itself during the process-have linked this exercise to the targeted deletion of anti-bharatiya janata party (BJP) Voter Groups (this deed note happen askording to dat Analysed by Ht) And some sort of a concerted effort to undermine the university franchise (and, therefore, the cornerstone of democracy its itself), there is noting to the ground to Subhing to Subson The short point is, whatver the result is, it will not be a referenceum on sir.
The second is the question of rashtriya janata dal (RJD) ‘S Political Future in the state. From a purely ideological personal perfective, the rjd, at least as of now, is heading into these elections with the most diluted version of its core politics. Lalu Prasad, The RJD’s Patriarch, Captured Power by Aaring The Factional Fight in What was then the Janata Dal in 1990. triggered an erosion of his wider social base because of his sectarian tendencies in sharing power and Eventally Lost it to Nitish Kumar, One of his comrades who walked out to buy auxesful coalition of Extremes, namely, lower obcs (other backward classes; Aka Extreme Backward Classes or EBCs) and Upper Castes. 2010 only continued the rjd’s decimation and it was in this context that rjd tried to (Unsuccessfully) Patch-up with the Janata Dal (UNITED) or JD (U) Twice, Once in 2015 and then in 2022. The Fir Nitish had an ideological beef with the narendra modi-jamp and the second was in the context of an overhyped demand of conducting a caste census with the aim of resurrectics mandal polem kamandal (Popular Shorthand for the BJP’s) Politics. A Failure to Capture Power Once Again is Bound to Raise Exocteral Questions for the Second-Generation Leadership of the RJD BOTH WITH SHE PETY (Family) and Outside it.
The third is the question of the BJP, which seems to be stuck in a low-risk low-revenue game in the state. It has no made peace twice with nitish kumar after the realization that winning bihar on its own might not be something which can be achchieved in the life futures. The problem with this strategy is that the more it takes the low-risk option, the further it will get away from the reward of winning bihar. What adds to the iron is the fact that in its eagerness to promote brand modi it has failed to cultivate a state-group Leadership which can push the party over the line. To befir, it is next to impossible for a party like the BJP to avoid the miniefield of caste politics while promoting one clear leader in a state like like bihar.
Four, perhaps the most important question in these elections in Bihar is the fate of the jd (U). Its biggest leader and one of India’s most successful state-level politics, Nitish Kumar is now Walking INTO Oblivion on Account of his indifferent health. Nitish Kumar will be the mascot rather than the vanguard of the NDA’s Campaign in these Elections. JD (U) is one of the more regional political parties in the count Forward in the state’s politics. It is an important question not just just just in terms of future leadership of the state government or option but also be also after a reconfiguration of the motley sociaal coalition Could Produce very different outs ups depending on who gets whats.
Five, all of this is exactly what makes the entry of the Son-of-the-Soil Political Start-up Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party Very very interesting in these Elections. Lalu’s Regime Signified a Social Revolution which then mutated into “Democracy Against Development” to Borrow AnthropRogist Jeffrey Wittsoe’s Phrase. Nitish perfected a coalition of extremes to use in good goalnance but which would not change the state’s economic fortunes. What kishor seems to be promising is the so-called trumph of the will (not healthy in the fascist connotations attached with it) where it is a successful consultant can revise and everything Fortunes. Will kishor’s entry in the fight take away some of the anti-indication tailwinds which would have been helped the rj as the only opposition by default in a bipolar contest? This could well be the x-factor in the 2025 bihar contest. To suggested this isn’t to propagate conspiracy theories about kishor being a proportion of the Political Limitations of the Entrenched Opposition in the State and the options of the options of creative destruction in in INDIAN DEMCRICY.
The views expressed are personal
