In the early years of India’s Independence, the country’s most important policy documents were the five-year development plans published by the Planning Commission. As the Commission lost clout, and the finance ministry gained in importance, the ministry’s pre-budget Economic Survey began garnering more and more eyeballs.
Over the years, the Survey has come up with several useful policy ideas and provocations, reshaping public discourse on key economic issues. For instance, the 2023-24 Economic Survey questioned the efficacy of trade and investment restrictions on China at a time when Sino-Indian relations were still frosty. The Survey argued that it might be better for India to let Chinese firms manufacture in the country rather than import manufactured goods from China. The commerce ministry initially dismissed the idea, before accepting the need for a rethink.
In earlier years, the Survey helped draw attention to India’s leaky welfare systems, arguing for the need to shift to direct cash transfers. The idea was extremely controversial when it was first aired (in the Economic Surveys of 2009-10 and 2010-11). But direct cash transfers — to farmers, women, and other intended beneficiaries — have become part of India’s conventional policy toolkit since then. All political parties — cutting across regional and ideological divides — have warmed up to the once-heretical idea. If anything, cash transfers are among the most overused policy tools now.
At its best, the Survey can serve up innovative policy ideas, and indicate areas where course-correction is required. But for every policy idea that has been debated and acted upon, the Survey contains at least ten others that are forgotten the day after they are aired. Most of the tables and charts presented in the Survey don’t have any novel insight. Worse, policy assessments presented in the Survey sometimes read like policy advertisements.
How could the Survey be made more useful for citizens, firms, investors, and public servants?
First, make it count. The Survey should provide analysis that is not easily available elsewhere. For instance, the Survey could outline the various scenarios that may unfold globally over the course of the next fiscal year, and the likely policy responses that different ministries and regulatory agencies may consider in each of those scenarios.
Such scenario analysis would help small businesses draw up their own contingency plans for the coming months. When the external environment changes, and government policy shifts gears, they will be prepared.
The finance ministry could work with the National Statistical Office (NSO) to develop short-run and medium-run forecasts using a range of alternative assumptions, and use those estimates for scenario planning. These estimates can then be updated on the finance ministry’s website every quarter. The Survey was conceived in the analogue era. It need not remain in that era anymore.
Most Indian businesses can’t afford to hire their own economic and geopolitical advisors. By providing timely guidance on key economic questions, the Survey team can help fill that gap.
Second, keep it short. Most decision-makers don’t have the time to read a lengthy yearbook on the Indian economy. A concise document focused on critical economic challenges is likely to be more valuable for them. A short executive summary followed by two to three chapters would help improve the Survey’s insight-to-text ratio. One of those chapters should be dedicated to the probable macroeconomic scenarios and likely policy responses.
Third, make it participatory. The Survey team could seek inputs on the most pressing problems faced by different economic ministries and state governments, and organize a policy hackathon on those subjects. Those who are able to provide the most compelling policy proposals on those subjects should be awarded short-term grants to prepare policy notes.
The hackathon should be open to both academic researchers and policy practitioners. The only restriction worth considering is that of age limits — to encourage young people to contribute to the policymaking process. Having an open contest would mean that the final selections are taken seriously.
The top policy notes could then be published online, and the Survey could feature some of the key policy recommendations from them. The Survey would be able to highlight interesting policy ideas from different parts of the country, without necessarily endorsing any of them. Those interested in the details could download the policy papers from the ministry’s website.
India is too complex an economy to be governed by a few wise men and women. And most policymakers tend to seek outside help in an ad hoc manner. A well-designed policy hackathon could provide a structured platform for seeking inputs from academics and policy researchers.
If policymakers know that those proposing new policy solutions do not represent vested interests, and that they have been selected through a competitive process, they are more likely to consider the policy solutions favourably. Even if some of the policy solutions are not entirely feasible today, they could still be useful tomorrow. And a young hackathon winner today might become a senior policymaker in the years to come.
Pramit Bhattacharya is a Bengaluru-based journalist. The views expressed are personal
