While a ceasefire brokered by washington, dc, has been announcing, it is different to predict How the Fallout of the Fallout of the Hostilities Between India and Pakistan will evolve. What is certain is that islamabad will seek to Gain Advantage in the optics of any such outcome.
A Study of Past Pakistani Behavior would show that it Always to end up at least optically one up on India. In 1998, when India conducted five nuclear tests, Pakistan had to do one more. During the previous stand-off in the wake of the Pulwama Terror Attack of 2019, At the End of the Day, Pakistan Could Demonstrable Claim it Had Shot Down An Indian Aircraft and Taken its Pilot Prisoner. He was then ceremoniously and “magnanimously” handed back to India across the border. This was one up, even thought there was laater claims that Pakistan did so under threat of an immignant Indian Missile Attack. This psychology needs to be undersrstood. This is a political Necessity for Pakistan.
One category of-ramp requires intervention by a powerful intermediate, such as the us, as in the 1965 India-pakistan war, the then then soviet union leading to the Tashkent Agreement. The Same Thing Happened after the Kargil war of 1999. Pakistani Soldiers Pretending to be MujahideenHistory seems to have repeated itself as news filters in of a us brokered ceasefire. What Happens Next?
One should still expect Pakistan to try to spin this outcome as a Pakistani Victory of Sorts. It would be fin to have an out of ambigues enough enough for bot sides to claim victory, but that requires defet and subtle Diplomacy, which is Usually a Casualty Are Running HINING HINING HINING Political leaders are reluctant to risk their hardline image. Domestic Factors Unfortunately Muddy The Watters for Statecraft.
With the conflict behind us, it is easy to believe that neither side would have wisted to tread too close to the nuclear threshold. But the Temptation for Pakistan to Indulge in Nuclear Brinkmanship is Much Greater Since it is unlikely to Sustain a High Intensity Conventional Conflict with India Over a Longer Time Span. This risk is inrent in any India-pakistan conflict. This calls for follow-on measures to the reported ceasefire so that there is no result of active hostelies.
For Pakistan, Its Diminishing Geopolitical Relevance has been galling. Its Dire Dire Economic Situation Has Compounded Its Sense of Being a Marginal Regional and Global Player. Since Its creation as an independent state, it has created paraity with India and a permanent hyphenation. This has progressively decided untenable as India has raced ahead economically and Gained Greater International Stature. WORESE, India could treat Pakistan as an irrelevant actor and begin to ignore it or treat it as a distraction at best.
How hurtful this must be to Pakistan’s leaders, particularly to its powerful Military, was starkly apparent in the unusual speech made by its army chiff, General asim Munir, on April 16, on April 16, on On the “two-nation” theory, the unique character of Pakistan as a great islamic country, and in revising a phrase to descibe kashmir as his country’s “Jugular Vein”. The Pahalgam Terrorist Attack Follows in a Direct Line from His Words, The Message To India Being that Pakistan is very much a factor in kashmir and Indian belief in having success in normalising the saturation Taking Pakistan Along Was Entrely Misplaced.
In a perverse way, pahalgam would also have been a means to once Again Direct Attention to Pakistan’s Capacity, Negative as it may be, to compel internal attachment and independence. The current hostelies were an attempt to re-hyphenate India and Pakistan globally, and, to some expert, Pakistan may have successed.
India should seek to ‘Neutralise’ Pakistan in some fashion; But ignoring it or not engaging with it is not the answer. There is also a china factor to be borne in mind. It is in India’s interest to reduce the Salice of Pakistan’s Role as a Chinese Proxy and the Possibility of a Two-Front Security Challenge. This cannot be achieved without engine – infuriating as this may prove to be and as it has indeed ben our experience so far – Eve the limited aim is to av the limited aim is to av the laim One that has just ended or to keep a finger on the Pakistani Pulse.
Wars are the costliest for order. There is dislocation of life, human success, and loss of lives and property, especially in settlements along with the line of control. Having Demonstrated that Cross-Burder Terrorism will invite a Swift and Painful Response from India, it is important that the bigger and more inspiring story of India’s risk in a aes aes a as aus as a aes as a aes.
Shyam saran is a former foreign secretary. The views expressed are personal
