The climate change, the effects of which are evident especially in northern India, is also affecting the western disturbances (WD) and causing them to become weaker, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general (DG) of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department (IMD). , on Monday.
He was at Panjab University, Chandigarh, for an event to commemorate 150 years of the IMD. “For this part of the country, WDs are important. They originate in the Mediterranean Sea and lead to rainfall in north-west India. While climate change can take almost a century for its effects to be seen, the intensity of WD over the years has reduced because of this,” he said.
“While we can give weekly predictions for WD, it is hard to give exact details for the whole season. The number of WDs can continue to remain unchanged, but it is only active WDs which lead to rain and which may reduce in the coming years due to climate change,” he said.
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WDs are the major source of rain in Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. Explaining their importance, Shivinder Singh, scientist at the IMD in Chandigarh, explained, “All the Himalayan rivers are dependent on western disturbances (WD) which lead to snow in the Himalayas that refills their water.”
This year, no active WD has hit the country in October and November. The result is visible with above average temperatures throughout north India due to low rainfall. Winters haven’t started yet because of this. However, a weak WD and low pressure area are currently active over this region and it can lead to a fall in temperature after three or four days. Further, the impact of WDs, which was more in winters, has partly been transferred to summers. This is why all-time rain records were broken in July 2023 due to an active WD working in tandem with the monsoon system, officials informed.
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Poor WDs affect air quality
Rain is the simplest solution for cleaning air pollutants but there have been no major rains in the region since the withdrawal of the monsoon system. Mohapatra declined to comment on the worsening air quality crisis and said that the IMD is not the nodal body to look into pollution.
While talking about climate change, Mahapatra explained that as per a study, it was expected that the average global temperature was set to increase by 1.5°C from pre-industrial era till 2100, but new research shows that it can happen by 2050 as it has increased by 1.15°C already.
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“Climate change is accelerating. It is being caused by man-made activities, like deforestation, industrial and urban growth. Its impact is visible all over the world, but in our country it is prevalent in north-west India where summers, winters and monsoons have been more extreme in previous years,” he said, adding that the southern part of the country remains better off. as research shows that places close to the equator face little impact of global warming while places close to the poles face the most impact.
