As vice-president of the National Conference, Jammu and Kashmir’s oldest political party, Omar Abdullah, 54, is fronting a hectic-paced campaign for the three-phase assembly elections beginning from September 18, first in a decade and after the momentous 2019 constitutional changes that nullified the erstwhile state’s special status and cleaved it into two Union Territories. A third-generation face of Kashmir’s formidable Abdullah dynasty and former chief minister, Omar spoke to Hindustan Times at his Gupkar Road residence in Srinagar about the NC-Congress alliance, his poll pitch and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami’s proxy electoral outing, while sounding upbeat on his party’s poll prospects. Edited excerpts:
What is your sense of the electoral landscape ahead of the first phase of assembly polls in J&K?
It is a mixed bag as all elections are. No election is entirely one-sided. Every party is trying to convince the voters that they are the best option. But, in terms of manifesto, roadmap and agenda, the National Conference (NC) has set the benchmark. Other parties have either copied it or are using its criticism to appeal to their voters. We are in alliance with the Congress, which is not something we are used to. It was not the easiest thing for both parties. We had to give them seats where we were reasonably well-placed. The same is true for them as well. The last time the NC-Congress had a pre-assembly poll pact was in 1987. This election is also unique in recent times because the banned Jamaat-e-Islami is openly backing and campaigning for independent candidates owing allegiance to it. This is a huge change from previous elections. Otherwise, ever since I have seen politics here from 1996 onwards, the Jamaat has been at the forefront of trying to stop people from voting.
How will the Jamaat factor impact the electoral arithmetic of mainstream parties?
Traditionally, the Jamaat vote has never come to the NC. Despite their poll-boycott stance, wherever the Jamaat has covertly played a political part in the last three decades, its supporters have gone to the parties like the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Now with the Jamaat coming and fielding its own nominees, it will dent the PDP in seats where it is the deciding factor, particularly in South Kashmir.
Your campaign is centered on the promise to restore the dignity of J&K. How will you do that?
In an immediate sense, our fight is to get back our statehood, undiluted. That is the primary concern for the people today. What was done regarding Articles 370 and 35-A was an insult. But an insult to the injury was heaped by reducing J&K to a Union Territory. All this was without any explanation whatsoever and with no benefit coming out of this. On a wider political fight for special status of J&K, which is part of the NC’s ideology, we are realistic enough to know that this is not going to happen with this assembly or this government at the Centre. But we are going to keep the issue alive. It is a long struggle.
Is Article 370 a poll issue?
It’s not a major issue on which we are fighting the election. It will be unfair to people who have been denied an elected government since 2018 and have suffered on account of poor administration to make this election purely about Article 370. They also want to know what we will do to address a host of issues they face daily. , such as employment, education, health, electricity, water and development. That’s why our manifesto goes far beyond the political issue of autonomy.
By promising J&K’s now-nullified special status, aren’t you giving the people a false hope, knowing well that this will never be back?
At the end of the day what has happened to J&K is at the behest of the government and judgment of the Supreme Court. It is subject to change. They are not the word of God. In future, there may be a government at the Center that is willing to discuss our demand for autonomy. Tomorrow, there could be a full bench of the Supreme Court to adjudicate differently. We want to keep this issue alive in the hope that in future, circumstances may change and allow us to revisit it.
After the 2019 constitutional changes on J&K, you had publicly declared to not contest the assembly polls till statehood is restored. What made you change your mind?
My first instinct, and for the longest time the only instinct that I had, was that I wouldn’t contest. I didn’t have the best of things to say about either the UT assembly or whatever government was to be elected. The assembly we are electing now is far from the one we want or deserve. That said, I was made to realize by people, obviously far wiser than me and not necessarily connected to the NC or politics. They said, ‘If this assembly is not good enough for you, why do you want us to vote for it?’ I genuinely had no answer. How do I go to voters and tell them: ‘Please elect my candidate as MLA but I don’t want that status’. That would have been hypocritical and wrong. This is not the assembly we are going to accept but it is through this assembly that we’ll get our statehood.
Who do you see as your main opponent?
In Kashmir, it will probably be the PDP, and in Jammu, it’s the BJP. In a handful of seats, some odd independents or smaller parties will play a part. For all of Delhi’s attempts to cleanse the political landscape of mainstream parties or the so-called dynastic parties by propping all sorts of parties and individuals here, ultimately J&K’s politics will go back to the NC, Congress, PDP and BJP. Smaller elements will play a role on the fringes.
You say that independents are being encouraged to split the votes of mainstream parties. Who will gain?
The biggest beneficiary of this will be the BJP that has said as much that if they fall short of numbers to form a government, they would take the help of smaller parties. The ones they are silent about but are open to doing business with are Apni Party, People’s Conference, Engineer Rashid’s party, and independents. A vote for independents is a vote for BJP. There are so many instances of the BJP weaning independents and overturning the people’s mandate. J&K will be no different. God forbid, if people of J&K elect too many independents, they will go straight to the BJP’s lap.
What can be the X-factor in this election?
Difficult to predict that at this stage. Jamaat could be one in the Valley. Three months earlier, we had an X-factor in the Baramulla parliamentary election that nobody saw coming. I have not seen yet any sign of ‘hawa’ that propelled a jailed Engineer Rashid to victory against me. But that doesn’t stop an X-factor from emerging because we are still in the early stages of campaign and there are a few days to go for the first phase of polling. The Engineer Rashid factor had caught fire at the fag end of electioneering.
What is the larger significance of a separatist Jamaat’s electoral foray after 37 years?
It will certainly make the elections more participatory. One expects the Jamaat cadre will come out and vote. The NC cadres will not sit at home either. During the poll boycott times, the NC cadre was reluctant to vote because they feared reprisal. That is not the case now.
Given the history of tumultuous NC-Congress alliances, will it work this time?
For us, a lot of impetus for this alliance was about the perception rather than the seats. In terms of seats, the NC doesn’t gain as much from the pact as the Congress does. Allying with Congress became almost vital for us due to a recent high court order that struck down an Enforcement Directorate’s case involving my father. Some of our political opponents went to town calling it evidence of an underhand deal between the BJP and the NC. To convince the people that we are not hand in glove with the BJP and will go all out to defeat the saffron party, an alliance with Congress became very important for us. We have an understanding on 84 of 90 seats. That we have managed to get this is not a bad thing.
How do you respond to home minister Amit Shah’s charge that the Congress and the NC want to release separatists and terrorist sympathizers to destabilize J&K?
What will we get by destabilizing our state except a tag of failure. On such a wild statement that we will allow militancy to come back, I would like to ask Mr Shah, who believes in numbers, to look at the graph of militancy in six years when I was CM and compare it with the last five years of rule under the Lt Governor. I would hazard a guess that in my time, the graph was sloping downward, and in the last five years it’s upward. Today, Jammu is a troubled area, which will be a big challenge for an elected government. The BJP needs to explain how they allowed a new life to militancy in Jammu.
What is your prognosis for the alliance in Jammu, which has been the BJP’s bastion?
If the pattern of voting in the last Lok Sakha elections is repeated, then the BJP is not as comfortably placed as it claims to be. Its vote share has gone down. In the 2019 Lok Sabha contest, it had won both Jammu and Udhampur by three lakh plus votes. In 2024, the margins were half of that. One hopes the Congress is able to win a good number of seats there.
What is it like to spearhead your first assembly election with Dr Farooq Abdullah passing on the baton to you?
I have more support from my father now than I had in 2014. Then, he was in London for his kidney transplant and didn’t campaign at all. This time, he is around and campaigning. I would say 75% is mine and 25% his effort. But his share assumes greater significance than mine.
Who is the NC’s CM face?
That is like putting the cart before the horse. First, we will have to get a majority. Then we will talk about the CM.
