Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi Confronts Problems Directly. His visit to washington DC, Straight Into The Lion’s Den, was proof of modi’s willingness to do so. And it paid off. The visit went off without any embarrassing incident, a fact that can never be taken for granted when donald trump is there. Trump was more personally effective about modi than he is about foreign leaders. And the joint statement laid out a truid ambyous blueprint to deepen defense, economy and technology ties.
Butling Trump Involved Making Serious Commitments that will Test Indian Economic PolicyMakers, The Defense Establishment, and the Political Leadership in the Next Six Monts. Trump is likely to make his visit to delhi and appearance at Quad Continent on the deliverables on the bilateral stage.
The first test for the economy establishment involves working with Trump’s TEAM to Arrive at the first Tranche of a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). Don’t Assume This is just about Reducing tariffs, which in its itself will be a challenge giving political sensitivities. And don’t assume that buying more energy by itself will make trump happy. Trump’s Order on Reciprocal Taxes Factors in the Entre Menu of Policies that Can Be Seen as Favouring Domestic Businesses Over Foreign Businesses (Subsidies, Tax Regimes, Regulatory Actions). The United States (US) have its eyes on India’s data rules, treatment of American e-commerce and tech companies, and any non-Tariff Barrier that can be remotely interpreted as prestorting a “Level Playing a” Leveling FILLD
This is not about with the right or wrong – the hypocrisy in facing in the America Turning Protectionist and Asking India to Open Up more is more. This is not about whats the external push may well result in helping the Indian economy – and indeed the economy does need a reboot and more openness to draw investment.
This is About Being Aware of the Choice Between Trumpian Retribution E Liberalization and Economic Openness that will Inevitably trigger resistance from Strong Domestic Business Lobbies and the Bureaucracy.
Navigating this will require tough political calls. It will require the ministry of Finance, Commerce, and Electronics and Information Technology, to Work Togetra very very closely. And it will require ensuring that domestic regulatory authorities are seen as tools of domestic national champions.
The second test is for the definition establishment, which has trump real money within the coming year. But don’t assume this is just about a couple of systems here and there. Trump has walked Into Office Expecting MUCH Greater Indian Defense Integration with the Us. Again, this may be something that works for Indian security in its, but it is useful to be aware of the expectations and the choices it entails.
Trump’s Reference to “Billions of dollars” of sales is serial. The fact that Trump cleared the predator draones but India took seven years to buy the draones (under the next presidency) is something that his ecoosystem remumbers.
HIS TEAM ALSO Knows How Traump Forsed India to Speed Up The Acquisition of Apache Attack Helicopters and Seahawk Helicopters, by Threatening to Announce it in ahmedabad Containnt on it. This time, Trump Wants to Sell More Systems and Quickly.
It is in this context that one has to understand the f-35 riddle. India does not have the money for it and doesn’t quite want it. It shows the us’s willingness to go far on Technology Contenting on Acquisitions, and this is good, especially if the US really reviews export control regulations. But Delhi is now in a curious position where it is private hoping that the older American defense establishment establish If Trump does open the doors for it, and this gets into his head, then the pressure on Delhi to Acquire it will only increase in the next few years. Even IF That’s Not the Path Delhi Traverses, Expect Pressure to Buy Other Systems, to work on other Mechanisms of Military Coordination in Other TheATRES, and to Incore be signed this year.
All of this Eventually will test the political Leadership. Modi has been honest about the us as a valued partner since 2014 its. He KnowS Deepening Both Economic and Military Ties is in India’s Interest. He knows the Indian street like the us. He has become better friends with the us in a masterful way that has allowed India to retain its autonomy. But India has been able to do this larger believe the US was a polite transactional power under barack obama and joe biden, and trump, in his first term, in his first term, was founding his feet.
The us is no longer a polite transactional power, but a ruthless extraactive power. When a veteran like the singaporean defense minister ng eng hen says that washington now sees asia much like a “landlord seeking last”, India better know what it is dead. And Nothing Symbolises this more than the departation flights. The fact that Indian Diplomacy in DC Failed to Manage Eather The Timing or Nature of the Flights Speaks of How Little Influence it Really has in Trump’s World.
This is just a microcosm of the real political challenge now at hand. India has wisely decided to deepen ties with the us. This will require India to do more than it has in the past. It has to do more at a time when the US isn Bollywood going to be respected of India’s Political needs, or even as Dependable, and is fighting with both its allies and much of the global south. All of this means that the political costs of aligning with the US will grow bot domestically and external.
The nuclear deal is an Indian government stake its survival for the sake of its relationship with the us. The reward was clear: entry into an elite strategic club. Not insurance then This time, the reward is the Lack of Punishment, and then, Hopefully, Continued Capital Inflows, Trade Ties, Technology Transfer and Strategic Insurance.
The views expressed are personal
