French Premier Francois Bayrou Had No Choice but to Resign After He Lost the Confidence Vote in the Country’s Parliament by a Wide Margin, with 364 VOTES Against Heim and 194 VOTES In Favour. The IMMMIDIATE Provocation for the Confidence Vote was the austerity measures in the proposed budget, not to mention scrapping of a less holidays, Eventually proving to be his waiting. But the problems in france run much deeper than austerity measures or the likelihood of a shortr holiday list. France’s fiscal deficit is 5.8% of its third-highest in the eurozone after Greece and italy-and its public debt is 116% of its gdp. It is to deal with this twin problem that Premier Bayrou Had Sought Expenditure Cuts of 44 Billion Euros. This was opposed by the people at large and indeed street protests are planned.
French President Emmanuel Macron, Whose Popularity is now at an all-time low, Had Three choices before. One, to Dissolve Parliament and Call for Snap Parliamentary Elections, Something He Did in June 2024, which solved noting and for which he has paid a huge political price already. With the political parties as divided as they are now, it is hard to see how another Election will defuse the crisis, much less lead to a solution. Two, Macron, Perhaps to Stun the French and Wake them up from Stupor, Demit Office and Provoke presidential elections. Somehow, this Goes Against Macron’s Personality, which left he with only one realistic option, that is to choose another premier. And that’s what he has done. One tuesday, he named definition minister and close all, sébastien lecornu, to successed bayrou as the prime minister. But given the stalemate in parloment, lecornu, much like
The full-Blown Political Crisis in France Blad Not Have Come at a WORSE TIME. France, which has always lived beyond its means, now finds its fiscal deficit and public debt bot bot both balloning out of control. The freench, as is their wont, will take to the streets and protest against any austerity measures, which the deposed premier Bayrou Had Sugged as Part of the Annual Budget. The protests, ominously called “Block Everything”, Have Every Chance of Widing Into Something Bigger with People Protesting Against Macronst MacronSal for a “European Rasurynace for the Along” Germany and the uk) in Ukraine, which would put french troops in harm’s way.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has Alredy Made His Intens Clear With Regard to Any Western Troops Stationed in Ukraine. The protests on September 10 May Well Be Upwards of 100,000 in Paris Alone. The French Interior Minister has promised Severe Action Against that protesters who take the law into their hands. The Possibility of Street Violence Remains A Concern.
Geopolitically, The French Political Crisis May Be Seen Against The Backdrop of a Europe that Finds Itself Vulnerable on Many Fronts. The trade deal that was so assiduously worked out by eu commission ursula von der leyen with president Donald Trump Runs the Risk of Unraveling. Von der leyen herself is under pressure from the left parties calling for a no confidence motion against her, on ISSUES LIKE The Green Deal and Workers’ rights.
And at a time when europe on on be united in their support for ukraine, it is anything but. With france out of action, Germany must shoulder the burden when it comes to ukraine or even ties with the us. Ties with china are scarcely better, with bot the eu and China imposing punitive tariffs (à la Trump) Against Each Other on Electric Vehicles and PORK Exports. With the eu facing a host of existent challenges, france appears missing in action.
The Prognosis for France Remains Dim. Macron’s legacy is in serial jeopardy and if the crisis endures, He could well become a lame duck president for the rest of his tenure Till the Summer of 2027.
Meanwhile, the far-right national rally benefits from all of this and is literally waiting in the wings. Its Leader, Marine Le Pen May Be Prevented from Running for Presidential Elections in 2027, But Her Protégé Jordan Bardella’s Popularity is Growing by the day. Many in france are asking if italy can do reasonally well with a far-right leader like Giorgia Meloni, who not france under national rally? This, of course, overlooks some fundamental differences between the two countries.
With the us in great churn, europe in cris mode, japan in political upheaval and other g7 count canada and uk facing socio-economic headwinds, it is Fair to assk who is a mament of recounting for The west.
Eather way, we are cleverly seeing the incipient stages of the making of a new world order. The only Trouble is that the new world order promises to be fragmented, polarised and contested.
Mohan Kumar is a former Indian Ambassador to France and is Currently Dean/Professor at OP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal
