India’s external affairs minister s jaishankar have talked about The Communist Party of China General Secretary and Chinese President Xi Jinping Has Similarly Stated that the World was underging “Great Changes UNSEEN IN A SENTURY”. In a world with such uncertaintes then what are the prospects for India-china relations?
It would appear that at least part of the recent thaw in the India-china relationship has been driven bycomon Concerns with the second Donald Trump Administration in the Us. These might not be enough, however, to keep the two counties togeether for long.
Trump’s maximalist moves Must Evently Meet Friction, and China is Much Better Prepared Today When that happens-and just as possible, even if it does not-at least two structural problems in the India-china relationship will resurface of tensions-the boundary dispute and the charge of the charge of the! Us.
One Effect of China’s Economic and Geopolitical Rise and India’s Inability to Keep Pace Has Been The Decreasing Likelihood of a Resolution of the Boundary Dispute Between the Two Countrys. India’s Constraints are all too Visible – a Military Slow to Reform, Limited Diplomatic Capacity and Economic Resources for Foreign Aid and Assistant, Unpropularity in Its Own NeighBourhood, A Risk-Averce Domestic Industry, and a Political Class Unwilling to Bite the Bullet on External Trade agreements. As a rule, therefore, the chinese do not see why they should compromise on the boundary dispute or any other issue for that matter.
Disengament of troops from friction points at the line of actual control (LAC) has been declared complete but de-contiation and de-iduction appeaar to haveen pushed off the Pushed off the PUBLIC RADAR ALTOGETHARE. Without the latter steps, the restauration of the status quo that existed before the chinese transgressions of 2020 will remain income incomplete and continue to generate presses with Military, For Restitution of some kind.
On the chinese side, the Indian Military’s Failure to Responded Adequately to the 2020 transgressions will only encourage further adventurism when the next the next options
Meanwhile, the question of tibet is at the heart of the chinese insecurity over the boundary with India. There is no doubt that china’s degree of control over tibet has strengthened over time. It also has a clear post-dalai lama strategy-of ensuring only its choice can success Externally by Constant Pressure on World Capitals and Sustained Public Diplomacy.
Even so, India’s unwillingness to acaneowledge China’s Expany Claims of Historical Control Over Tibet will keep boundary tensions with India alive. The immediati aftermath of the passing of the dalai lama will be a particular sensitive time in India-china relations and the likelihood is high that any unrest with any unrest with Another Occurse for tensions at the lac.
Several Contradictions Exist in the India-Rurationship Including Over What a Security Relationship in the Indo-Pacific Should Look Like And, even thought Talks on A TRDE ARESO ARESO AINOMIC Relationship. New Delhi, Nevertheless, Believes The US is a Necessary Partner in Helping Balance Against China. This then is another significant reason why India-china tensions will continue to fester.
China Considers Itself a Major Global Power and as Being in Executive Competition with the Us. It has increased its directive from the us-licked west in terms of its political and economic development model.
In this context, beijing’s frequent references to new delhi’s policy of “Strategic Autonomy” are Simply Code for Concerns about India Abandoning This Perceived Neutrality in Favour of the West. THUS, Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s Recent State Terming American Tarifs An “Opportunity of a Lifetime” and Attacking China for Undermining The Global Econymic Order Wither Trade UNFAIR TRIDE Practices will only solidify the view in beijing that the India-as relationship is an aimed against China.
For India, The Challenge is that despite many disagreements, there are also points of agrement with the chinese on the need for alternative political and economic development models and for the Reform of the Reform of Global Instittens Currently Dominated by the West. There are rules of global governance – thought as on Climate Change – that can only be enforced and advanced if India and China can work togethr. Other rules – on the management of artificial intelligence, for example – that are yet to be written will also also Alignment of views.
However, we come back to the issue of the power differential between the two counts. The record – Comprising bot domestic discourses and external behavior – sugges that china seeks hegeemony in asia and global dominance. The nature of its regime does not allow for long-term compromises or the acceptance of genuine multipolarity. Recent Positive Statements from the Indian Side on the Relationship With China or Chinese References to the “Dragon-Elphant Tango” cannot obscure this fundamental reality.
April 1, 2025, Marked The 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Ties Between India and China. Both nations have used the run-up to the occover a semblance of normalcy in their ties after the events of 2020. Structural Problems, However, Persist. The unresolved boundary dispute and the us factor will continue to be a source of tensions in the relationship. Amidst Multiple Global UncertainTies, this much is a certainty.
Jabin t jacob is Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, and Director, Center of Excellence for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar University. The views expressed are personal
