For the first time in six years, the top two seeds have made the Australian Open men’s singles final, the last being Novak Djokovic (1) and Rafael Nadal (2019). But that is not the surprising aspect of the summit clash, which will take place at the Rod Laver Arena on Sunday. While defending champion Jannik Sinner, from the top half of the draw, was much expected to make the second consecutive final, from the bottom half, the bets were on one between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, both of whom were on a quarterfinal collision course. . But while the Serb beat the Spaniard, an injury he picked up during that clash, got the better of him in the semifinal, where he was forced to retire after losing the opening set, thus sending Alexander Zverev into the final.
But that doesn’t make Zverev the unlikely contender in the final. He has won 16 of his last 17 matches on the tour, dating back to November’s Paris Masters, and has been a consistent title contender, albeit an underdog, in Slams for the last 24 months, which includes three semifinal runs, one of which transpire into his second appearance in the final (Roland Garros 2024). Not to forget, he was the last man to beat Sinner in a hardcourt Slam, before the Italian transformed himself into an invincible force on the surface.
Since that loss in five sets in the fourth round of the 2023 US Open, Sinner has gone unbeaten in hardcourt majors, winning 20 in a row, including his title hauls in Melbourne and New York last year. He also has an identical winning streak on the tour that dates back to November last year.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Head-to-head tie
Zverev enjoys a 4-2 against Sinner in six meetings on the tour, which includes a 2-1 record in Slam encounters, where both wins came at the US Open two years apart. Sinner’s only win in a major against the German came in the pre-quarter of the 2020 French Open. The world no. 1 also claimed victory in their last meeting, in the Cincinnati Masters semifinal.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: What is at stake?
Zverev, a seven-time ATP Masters 1000 champion, two-time Nitto ATP Finals titlist and an Olympic gold medalist, will aim to be the first German, male or female, in this century to win a singles Slam. Steffi Graf was the last to the milestone, with her sixth French Open haul in 1999. However, the last German to win the Australian Open trophy was Boris Becker in 1996.
On the other hand, Sinner will look to become the 11th man to successfully defend his Australian Open crown, joining the likes of Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andre Agassi, Jim Courrier and a few others. Djokovic was the last to do the feat, en route to his three-peat between 2019 and 2021.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Where will the battle be decided?
The finale will be a heavy baseline battle with Zverev’s serve and Sinner’s return taking the centrestage.
Statistically, Sinner has been the better server in Melbourne, winning 81 per cent of points behind his first delivery, compared to 78 for Zverev. The gap increases to 62 for Sinner and 56 for the German on second serves. But Sinner’s return position will matter against the Zverev first serve. If the Cincinnati meeting gave away any secrets, the Italian stood far away from the baseline to give himself time to react to the heavy serve, but that left Zverev with the opportunity to serve out wide. The latter needs to be careful about his weaker second serve, which was usually dished out to the middle or backhand during that Cincinnati match. Sinner feeds on the opponent’s second serve, with the figure being 58 per cent during his 2025 Melbourne campaign. Not to forget, he won 70 per center of his break points.
The other factor that Zverev needs to execute is an offensive game, which lacked immensely during the first set against Djokovic in the semifinal, where the German seemed to be playing the waiting game and looked to cautious in attacking with his forehand. He needs to venture to the net more often and take more risks.
Sinner, on the other hand, who has battled through cramps during this week in Australia, will want to keep the rally length shorter. With Zverev being typically a defensive player, he naturally draws opponents into longer rallies. And with him having re-appointed his old physical conditioning coach after the French Open loss last year, he has become more adept in the longer rallies. Not to forget, five of the six matches between the two have all gone the distance.
Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev: Who will win?
For a player with such an incredible streak, it is hard not to pick Sinner.
