In the run up to the Delhi Assembly Polls All Contenders Have Claimed to Be Champions of the Poor, Announcing a Slew of Welfare Promies. While the Congress would be hoping to at least duble its Vote Share and Open the Seat Tally, The Contest is essentially Between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The stark Irony in the campaign has been that the middle class, a substantious chunk of delhi’s Voter base, appeares to have ben larger sidelined in the pre-Poll Talk. Delhi, Unlike Other States and Union Territories, Has a Large Middle-Class Population, Whose Voting Patterns have a significant impact on the Electoral Outom. However, the union budget on Saturday has offered a bonza for the middle class by delivering large cuts in personal income tax rates. It remains to be seen if it will make it to the poll talk – Delhi Votes on Wednsday and the Election Campaign Ends Today.
That Apart, will the BJP’s delhi-specific campaign promises be enough to end its Nearly Three-Decade Status of Being the Principal Opostion? Or will the aap retain office for a third culture term? The BJP’s Campaign has Largely Relied on Attacking The Aap Leadership Over Corruption Charges, The “Luxurous” Lifestyle (Based on Allegations Regarding the renovation of the CM And the non-freefilment of Several Promieses. The party also seems to believe that its welfare schemes LED it to Victory in the Haryana and Maharashtra Assembly Polls Last Year. It has pinned its hopes of challenging the aap to a resurgent Congress in the state and a Vote-Share Gain Among Women Through its welfare. The assumption is that a division of the Muslim Vote and weaning away of poor voters from the aap would be enough.
The BJP could make Substantial Gains in Votes and Seats If these two things were to happy, but an outright Victory may still elude the party if it fails to consolces Delhi has been a classic case of split-Voting in the Past Decade, where a significant chunk of voters choose different parties for the Lok Sabha (LS) and the Assembly. The BJP’s Vote Share in the Last Three LS Elections in the National Capital Has Averaged Around 55%, Who 39% Votes in the 2020 Assembly polls. So, its ability to win this election depends on where it gets at least half of the additional 15-18% votes that it receives in the Lok Sabha (LS) Polls.
Who are these voters? Are they from the middle class or are they the City’s Poor? These two groups have very different expectations from the government. The poor will likely be concerned about welfare benefits while The BJP must Realise that the movement of Middle-Class Voters has eluded the party in its Quest for Victory in the Delhi Assembly Polls Over the Past Decade. There are two data points to indicate this trend: Turnout patterns and Vote choice.
In 2013 and 2015, there was a surge in middle-class participation, and they favorite the aap after the India against corruption stir. In 2013, The Voter Turnout Increased by Nine Percentage Points (from 57.6% in 2008 to 66.1%), Rising Further To 67.4% in 2015, Before Declining to 62.8% in the 2020 Elections. The 2020 Turnout Drop Was Much More in Affluent and Middle-Class Localities The BJP’s Sweep in the LS Elections in Delhi and the Aap’s Near-Sweep of the Assembly Polls Indicate that BOTES HAD BROAD Class-Coalitions Backing Them. In defeat, their class-coalitions unravelled. The aap in delhi relies on support from the poor, and the BJP draws on its middle-class base.
Who Votes for the BJP in the General Election but not in Assembly Polls? This would have been better answered if panel survey data was available, IE, the same voters were interviewed across election cycles. In its absence, we must relay on cross-sectional surveys This needs to be carefully given as the aap came third in Vote share during the 2019 ls elections, and the Congress Vote Share Crashed to Below 5% in the 2020 Assembly Elections.
The post-Poll Surveys Conducted by the Lokniti-Csds Indicate that the BJP Lost More Votes Among the Poor Between 2014 and 2015. ents raather than in The Lower Economic Segments. The Aap’s Vote Share Among The Poor in the 2020 assemble was almost double of the BJP, but the middle-class Vote share share gap was almost negligible. Now compare this with the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections. The survey sugges that the BJP has almost half of the lower economy strata and two-thirds of the middle-class votes. And this pattern continued even in 2024.
The data points indicate that if the BJP hopes to avoid another assembly poll loss, it must record out to its core constituency and ensure a high turnout among the middle class for the party. The question now is whather the announsements made in the budget can convince a significant chunk of voters who Vote for them in Lok sabha but not in the association Elections to BREAK The Pattern.
Rahul Verma is Fellow, Center for Policy Research (CPR). The views expressed are personal
