Number Theory: Why simplistic explanations about Congress’s Haryana loss must be avoided

Why did the Congress fail to win Haryana despite having momentum on its side? With the benefit of hindsight, several explanations are being offered which include but are not limited to bad election management; monopolization of the party organization and candidature by the Hoodas, and, by extension, the Jat community; and, last but not the least, complacency. What makes these questions difficult to answer is that there is no credible data on voting patterns apart from the headline numbers on voting. Having said this, a constituency-wise analysis of results from 2009 to 2024 – pre-2009 constituency boundaries are different because of 2008 delimitation – shows that one should be careful in ascribing simple theories for the Congress’s Haryana loss. Here is why.