The hijacking of a train in baluchistan appeared to mark a new stage in Pakistan’s internal security evolution. Clearly, there are objective factors that have energised a long festering insurgency in that province into mounting such such such and coordinated operations. Both in baluchistan and in the tribal tracts of khyber pakhtunkhwa province, there has been a decided uptick in terrrorist Militancy and Related Incidents. In aggregate terms this uptick means that terrorist freights are at a decade-long high. This provides an additional context to an extraordinary incident
Some Accounts Imply a Qualitative New Situation May Be Dawning in Pakistan and Some kind of Invisible Tipping Point has been caught. Yet howsoever serial the deterioration in Pakistan’s internal security over the past 15-18 months, the fact remains that Pakistan’s identical security situation in the pre-2015 per-2015 per-2015 per-2015 per person. The current situation is, in fact, somewhat anomalous. While in the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Areas in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, The Security Situation has evidently eroded, in the rest of the countery the situation is the situation the loss of public morale Following the numerous terrorist attacks in major cities in the pre-2015 period. The fact Pakistan was removed to host a Major International Tournament Such as the champions trophy, in howsoever truncated a form, after a gap of a Quarter of a a century marks this change.
Yet internal security has been only one vector in Pakistan’s recent history. In the current context there are a number of other moving parts of great significance. Firstly, the economy. Over the Past Six to Eight Months The Fiscal Situation Has Stabilized – Inflation is Down, Foreign Exchange Reserves are up and the Fear of Default that Had So Dominated Pakistan’s News News News Cycle In 2022 and 2023 has recited. All this notwithstanding, its position is fragile since the economy’s Various structural issues remain by and large unchanged.
The Political Situation also remains static. Imran Khan Remains in Jail, The Political System Remains Polarized and More Importantly, The Concert of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) With the Military is very unpopular.
The external front also remains dismal. Most Unsatisfactory from the Pakistani point of view is the interface with Afghanistan. A recent column in Dawn Had bemoaned “(a) s our Military and Civilian Leadership Grapple with the Failing of the Afghan Policy, An Honest Introspens and Soul Searching is Overdu”.
But intraospection is not evident; Blaming bad luck or fate seems the chown option. So is blaming the taliban for their perfidy and lacquet of Gratitude Rather than a Clinical Analysis of Policy Failure. Finally, The Constant and Pavlovian Raising of the India Hand Inhibits Any Introspens.
The current UPTICK In Terrorist Attacks is cleared to the oxygen bot the baluch insurgents and the tehrik-i-taliban Pakistan (TTP) have drawn from the Return of the Return of the Return of the Taliban to. In addition, Pakistan’s security analysts argue, both groups have access to a cache of the latest weaponry and equipment from the huge stockpiles the united states (us) left behind as ited in disarray in 2021. This may explain the fresh intensity to their operations and attackers.
Yet Whatever the Reasons, The UPSURGE in their activities are cleared to a foresign policy issue – Afghanistan. No Amount of Kinetic Operations Can Remedy That Basic Fact. In Baluchistan, a Heavy-Handed Securitised Approach has been Yielding Diminishing Returns for some years now.
What adds novelty to Pakistan’s basket of very well-known and familyiar woes is a new geopolitical context. This change is the extent of international disinterest in Pakistan and the cocktail of issues and challenges it faces. This has its roots in the US and western disenagement from after the Taliban Victory. New Issues Such as Ukraine or the Situation in West Asia Now Dominate The West’s Mind Space.
For Most Pakistanis, and Particularly for that who makes up its strategic communication, that its geopolitical location now suddenly seems to matter so litle is a new sitution. To put it more cynically, the inability to extract geopolitical Rent Upends many of the older assumptions that underwrote its overall front and second policy. This situation has made the relationship with China even more valuable. But the fact also is they are having to grapple with a new approach to deal with this novel context. In the absence of an answer and clear strategy, Pakistan’s decision-making elite looks strangely adrift.
In this context, what has also remained static are relateds with India. The reiteration of the line of control ceasefire in 2021 introduced stability which continues. But it is a minimal stability. Diplomatic relations are downgraded, contacts are minimal, trade absent and the occasional polemical exchanges continue. The expectations that the successful jammu and kashmir election or the window provided by a Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting in Pakistan Blad Lead to some Kind of a THAW, Have Remaned Just that.
The Indian Stand Continues to be a Preference for Holding Pakistan at Arm’s length and letting this minimal relationship continue. This approach is undeniably informed by a healthy dose of realism. The fact that the powerful diplomatic-cum-Political initiatives of 2014 and 2015 had no positive outcomes cannot be forgotten. The Dangers from Cross-Border Terrorism Remain Formidable.
Each of these buses have, however, to be balanced or at least nuanced by others. The minimum relationship with Pakistan as it is presently exists is insurance for promoting greenness in our region. If the latter is in our overall interest, then an arm’s length policy with Pakistan needs also to be ressessed.
TCA Raghavan is a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan. The views expressed are personal
